Today marks a special anniversary as I revisit an article I wrote a decade ago with IMD Business School: Is VUCA the End of Strategy and Leadership?
Back in 2015, the world was already wrestling with volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). Fast forward to 2025, and what once felt overwhelming now looks like the baseline of a reality that has grown even more chaotic.
We've moved from VUCA as a condition to what experts now call a "polycrisis"—where multiple, interconnected crises amplify each other's impacts. Leaders today face continuous and overlapping disruptions, where before one challenge can be addressed, another emerges. The Accenture 2024 Pulse of Change Index shows that the rate of change has increased 183% over the past four years.
The question I raised back then feels even more pressing today:
Do leadership and strategy principles still matter in chaos? Or have they been replaced by brute force and basic intuition?
To answer this, perhaps we first need to look back 10 years and reflect. No matter whether we are referring to geopolitical or organizational levels, aren't many of today's weaknesses—or worse, dependencies and exposures—the direct consequences of leadership and strategy failures of the past?
In 2015, I argued that VUCA wasn't the end of strategy and leadership but rather demanded a more sophisticated "context-mindful" approach, embracing stakefactors, maintaining strategic flexibility, and fostering adaptability. There is no doubt that many companies, or even nations have missed that train and find themselves in very critical situations today. Just look at Europe's current strategic vulnerabilities.
"Today's role of leadership is to provide clarity in uncertain times".
(A quote attributed to Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella). The question remains: how can we achieve clarity and is this enough?
My original argument for strategic thinking as an imperative seems to have become even more crucial, and maybe we should add critical thinking to it. Maybe that long term focus needs now to be balanced with addressing the short term consequences of induced chaos? Zoom-in, zoom-out!
What is the main issue with uncertainty?
It provokes anxiety, tension, decreases psychological safety. While some level of stress is necessary to maintain alertness and performance, too much is detrimental and may lead to paralysis.
In the 2015 article, I explored how leaders should interpret changes in their environment, make decisions, and inspire adaptability in others. These principles remain critical as we navigate today's chaos. But are they still enough?
I invite you to take a moment to read (or reread) this piece and reflect on its relevance in 2025.
What does leadership and strategy look like in an era where VUCA, chaos don't seem a consequence anymore, but a tactic?